Articles

Blinded by the polls?

In News on April 24, 2010 by dadge

Like most people, I’ve been lulled by the Clegg surge into thinking the Tories are suddenly way off an overall majority, but perhaps the reality is quite different. If we turn from the polls and look at the betting on individual constituencies, the Tories have 315 seats in the bag at the moment. (see http://generalelection2010.timesonline.co.uk/#/Predictions which is based on betting with Ladbrokes.) Although there’s much less betting activity on individual seats than on the total numbers of seats, I think it’s fair to say that, generally speaking, the people who bet on the former are more knowledgeable. Suddenly an overall majority looks within the Tories’ grasp, even if we assume that LibDem seats are out of reach. (They’ll probably win a couple, but lose a couple back.) Getting out the Tory vote is going to be much easier than getting out the Labour vote. Seats like Blackpool South, Amber Valley, Cannock Chase, Northfield, etc. that aren’t included in the 315, could also fall.
 
“I am worried about the polls. I feel a 1992 coming on.” chairwoman of NOP http://johnrentoul.independentminds.livejournal.com/
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