With one week to go…

1. I still think that the Tories will do better than the polls and the Uniform National Swing (UNS) suggest, putting them 20 seats ahead of the seat calculators. Caveat: the Tories UNDERperformed in 2005, so even though the reasons for adding seats to their projection seem sound, they may be wrong. And my prediction for the number of seats they’ll lose because of UKIP is 9.

2. Clegg did better in the third debate than he was being given credit for last night. His closing statement was by far the best of the three. There was a big TV audience, and for a lot of people it was only the first or second time they’d seen him, so perhaps we should’ve been expecting another, if smaller bounce, and he got it.

3. The Guardian coming out for the LibDems will cause ructions. Labour was still on course to be the official opposition, and still on course to have more seats than the Tories managed at the last few elections. Middle-class socialists will hate this move: it seems naive of the paper to think this will do anything to stop the Tories winning the election.

4. The LibDems will outperform UNS because young voter registration has increased, turnout will be higher than last time, and there is a mood for change. They’re likely now to take quite a few Labour seats, some of which (e.g. Gorton, Streatham) have hardly been mentioned during the campaign.

5. My prediction ten days ago was Con 299, Lab 222, LibDem 99, Others 30. In the meantime I was inclined to add a bunch of marginals to the Tory total, but I’m finding it increasingly hard to justify a prediction that they’ll gain 100+ extra seats by gaining just 2% extra vote share. Still, the LibDems will help them by taking votes from Labour, so my best guess right now is Con 305, Lab 205, LibDem 110.

6. Parliament won’t just be hung, it’ll be drawn and quartered.


Posted April 30, 2010 by dadge

One Response to “With one week to go…”

  1. Sound reasoning and I reckon you may not be too far off the mark. Even so this election may still have a few surprises to throw.

    The youth vote will be interesting – how many tempted by chance for a bit of radicalism vs. how many following traditional voting patterns…

    My overwhelming hope is still that this will be the last time I vote in a general election with a first-past-the-post system. 🙂

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