I’ve now identified 21 seats where the Tories lost by less than the UKIP vote. Assuming that UKIP voters would’ve voted Tory if there hadn’t been a UKIP candidate (and a proportion of them wouldn’t have, I know), the presence of a UKIP candidate has had an important spoiler effect in this election. The Conservatives currently have 306 seats. These extra 21 seats, plus Thirsk (voting on 27 May), would give them 328 seats, an overall majority. Before the election I did suggest that this was likely to happen, but most Tories put their hands over their ears and went “La la la, I can’t hear you.”
| seat | non-Con majority | UKIP vote |
| Hampstead & Kilburn | 42 | 408 |
| Bolton West | 92 | 1901 |
| Solihull | 175 | 1200 |
| Southampton Itchen | 192 | 1928 |
| Mid Dorset & Poole North | 269 | 2109 |
| Wirral South | 531 | 1274 |
| Derby North | 613 | 829 |
| Dudley North | 649 | 3267 |
| Great Grimsby | 714 | 2043 |
| Wells | 800 | 1711 |
| Telford | 981 | 2428 |
| Walsall North | 990 | 1737 |
| Morley & Outwood | 1101 | 1506 |
| St Austell & Newquay | 1312 | 1757 |
| Newcastle under Lyme | 1552 | 3491 |
| Plymouth Moor View | 1588 | 3188 |
| Middlesbrough South | 1677 | 1881 |
| St Ives | 1719 | 2560 |
| Walsall South | 1755 | 3449 |
| Somerton & Frome | 1817 | 1932 |
| Derbyshire North East | 2445 | 2636 |
On my first look through the results I only found ten examples, but thanks to Jason at Conservative Home, we can all now see the full extent of this Tory cock-up. Cameron has had plenty of opportunity since he became leader to do a deal with UKIP but, for whatever reason, he chose not to. Now it’s come back to bite him.
This information is not only significant with regard to the election outcome: it’s also important to bear it in mind during the negotiations that are currently taking place. If I were David Cameron, I’d promise a referendum on EU membership, in return get UKIP to promise not to put candidates up against the Tories, and then call another election for the autumn. In other words, he should just forget the whole business of trying to do a deal with the LibDems.
Now, I tend to side with the LibDems, so I’ll be pleased to see them in government, but Tories like Cranmer are mightily frustrated with Cameron’s behaviour.
Locus 
You’ve missed one.
As Milton Friedman once observed, it’s not actually necessary to throw the bums out- it will suffice to tell the bums what you want and make it clear that you mean it. Perhaps the above figures will help to make it understood that the EU is not held in such high regard as the politicians fondly suppose.
UKIP are idiots. The Tories will be in coalition with the most Europhile Party in the country.
UKIP activists aren’t putting in time and effort for their self-aggrandisement. It is tough being at a count with a UKIP rosette, being treated ‘tolerantly’ by the other parties, and knowing your candidate will finish nowhere.
UKIP members aren’t in thrall to a charasmatic leader, or a silky smooth operation.
We turn out because we believe that the damage done by the EU, the institutionalising of the endemic corruption, and all the other familiar disadvantages are much underestimated by the main parties. We need a referendum. And BOO would win in in a canter, even with establishment ‘rigging’.
Conversely, a referendum on PR is unwinnable.
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