Quotes

Conservative targets

David Cameron had two choices: no coalition and another election quite soon (which he might have won), or a rigid coalition which has a chance of lasting out a full 5-year term. For whatever reason (and the chemistry between Dave ‘n’ Nick must have something to do with it) he opted for the latter course of action. The plan now, within those five years, is to reform the electoral process in some way, at least by reducing the number of constituencies, at most by introducing AV. But, you know, the Whitehall wheels don’t always move quickly, and the path of true coalition love doesn’t always run smooth, so there’s always a chance we’ll have the next election under the same system and the same boundaries as the May 2010 edition. Hence the posting of these tables of marginals. I’ve already posted lists of seats where the three main parties have leads of under 5%, and now I’m working on the lists of target seats. Here’s all the seats that the Tories could take with a 5% swing from the winning party. (They need to take 19 of them to gain an overall majority.)

 

constituency

% behind

winner

1

Hampstead & Kilburn*

0.08

Lab

2

Bolton West*

0.19

Lab

3

Solihull*

0.32

LD

4

Southampton Itchen*

0.43

Lab

5

Mid Dorset & Poole North*

0.57

LD

6

Wirral South*

1.33

Lab

7

Derby North

1.36

Lab

8

Wells*

1.43

LD

9

Dudley North*

1.68

Lab

10

Great Grimsby*

2.17

Lab

11

Morley & Outwood

2.25

Lab

12

Telford*

2.37

Lab

13

Walsall North*

2.74

Lab

14

St Austell & Newquay

2.78

LD

15

Somerton & Frome

3.00

LD

16

Birmingham Edgbaston

3.06

Lab

17

Sutton & Cheam

3.31

LD

18

Halifax

3.38

Lab

19

Newcastle-under-Lyme*

3.59

Lab

20

Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland

3.63

Lab

21

Wakefield

3.63

Lab

22

St Ives

3.74

LD

23

Plymouth Moor View*

3.82

Lab

24

Gedling

3.86

Lab

25

Eltham

3.96

Lab

26

Walsall South*

4.29

Lab

27

Nottingham South

4.34

Lab

28

Chippenham

4.72

LD

29

Tooting

4.98

Lab

30

North East Derbyshire

5.20

Lab

31

Exeter

5.21

Lab

32

Chorley

5.21

Lab

33

Angus

5.22

SNP

34

Blackpool South

5.26

Lab

35

Brighton Pavilion

5.36

Green

36

Westminster North

5.37

Lab

37

Oldham East & Saddleworth

5.42

Lab

38

Southampton Test

5.46

Lab

39

Luton South

5.52

Lab

40

Bridgend

5.90

Lab

41

Dagenham & Rainham

5.95

Lab

42

Perth & North Perthshire

6.07

SNP

43

Delyn

6.14

Lab

44

Cheadle

6.23

LD

45

Banff & Buchan

6.26

SNP

46

North Cornwall

6.36

LD

47

Norwich South

6.43

LD

48

Gower

6.44

Lab

49

Penistone & Stocksbridge

6.55

Lab

50

Eastbourne

6.59

LD

51

Birmingham Northfield

6.65

Lab

52

Stalybridge & Hyde

6.71

Lab

53

Harrow West

6.82

Lab

54

Bury South

6.82

Lab

55

Bradford East

6.86

LD

56

Taunton Deane

6.87

LD

57

Scunthorpe

6.88

Lab

58

Berwick-upon-Tweed

7.00

LD

59

Vale of Clwyd

7.06

Lab

60

Wolverhampton North East

7.12

Lab

61

Eastleigh

7.20

LD

62

Hyndburn

7.24

Lab

63

Alyn & Deeside

7.31

Lab

64

Birmingham Selly Oak

7.48

Lab

65

Hammersmith

7.48

Lab

66

Argyll & Bute

7.59

LD

67

Darlington

7.90

Lab

68

Sefton Central

7.97

Lab

69

West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine

8.15

LD

70

Clwyd South

8.17

Lab

71

Bristol East

8.27

Lab

72

Don Valley

8.28

Lab

73

Torbay

8.29

LD

74

Coventry South

8.37

Lab

75

Moray

8.48

SNP

76

Batley & Spen

8.62

Lab

77

Newport West

8.92

Lab

78

Copeland

8.96

Lab

79

West Lancashire

8.96

Lab

80

Birmingham Erdington

9.22

Lab

81

Cheltenham

9.32

LD

82

Bolton North East

9.44

Lab

83

Leeds North East

9.56

Lab

84

Feltham & Heston

9.60

Lab

85

Carmarthen East & Dinefwr

9.62

PC

86

Brecon & Radnorshire

9.65

LD

87

Ellesmere Port & Neston

9.79

Lab

 

An asterisk indicates that the UKIP vote was significantly larger than the amount the Conservatives lost by.

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Posted May 23, 2010 by dadge

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