Articles

Poll of polls

In News on April 27, 2015 by dadge

Just a week and a half to go! Again, the poll of polls doesn’t seem to have changed very much, but if you look at the actual polls, there are signs that there is some significant movement to the Conservatives, such that now my projection has them (and Labour) pretty much where they were at the last election, the big difference being the relative fortunes of the Lib Dems and the SNP. Dare I say it, it’s starting to look like a Tory victory, and there is a slight possibility that they could gain an overall majority.

April 27: Con 34% Lab 33% LibDem 9% Ukip 14% Green 5% Others 5%

Electoral Calculus prediction: Con 273 Lab 282 LibDem 15 Ukip 2 Green 1 SNP 56 Plaid 3

Locus adjusted prediction: Con 302 Lab 259 LibDem 16 Ukip 2 Green 1 SNP 49 Plaid 3

Poll data

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