Thoughts on the aftermath

In News on May 3, 2015 by dadge

Poll of Polls: C 33.3 L 33.3 Ukip 14 LD 8 G 5
Locus Prediction: C 34.5 L 30.5 Ukip 13 LD 10 G 4
Seats: C 294 L 263 Ukip 2 LD 19 G 1 SNP 50

1. Labour, just like Gore in 2000, are allowing the conservatives to write the story. We’ve seen this already with the successful Sturgeon=bogeywoman spin which has disctated the terms of the second half of the campaign. Notice how the Tories and the Tory media managed this even though Sturgeon had only just been voted the darling of the undecided voters. Instead of facing this spin down, Ed got frit and caved in. Now we have the Tories proactively talking down the legitimacy of a Labour minority government and, again, Labour doing nothing to correct this narrative.

As it happens, even though the Tories can easily be accused of being the pot calling the kettle black, Labour are pushed into a corner here by the reality of the voting. The left-wing parties (excluding the LibDems ha ha) will muster less than 45% of the vote.

2. The LibDems will probably remain as the key to number 10. I don’t think anyone will manage the magic 323 without them. Clearly there is irony there in that they’re at their most powerful when they’re at their weakest. Can it be business as usual for the LibDems during such a traumatic time for the party? I doubt it; and DUP+weak LD make for pretty tragic colleagues for a new Cameron government.

3. The Con-Lab-SNP love triangle. Despite all the rhetoric of the last few days, it’s in no-one’s interest to rock the boat too much after the election. The English Votes issue will putter on, but I expect it to be All Quiet on the Northern Front.

4. The People. What will people (not politicians) do after the election? There were rumblings after the last election, and they will probbaly be worse this time. What form will they take?


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