Election day 2015: the key seats

In News on May 7, 2015 by dadge

I’ve been through all the GB marginals and come up with the following result, which more or less reflects the opinion polls (gains/losses from 2010 in brackets):

Lab 279 (+44 from Con, +9 from LD, -32 to SNP)

Con 273 (-44 to Lab, +14 from LD, -3 to Ukip, -1 to SNP)

SNP 48 (+32 from Lab, +9 from LD, +1 from Con)

LD 25 (-14 to Con, -9 to Lab, -9 to SNP)

Ukip 3, Plaid 3, Green 1, Respect 1

This result would produce a Labour minority government, but there is a lot of scepticism about whether Labour will really gain 44 seats from the Tories.

Here’s those 44 seats, and I’ve highlighted 17 of them that might stay Tory. If they do, the election result would be completely different: Lab 262, Con 290. David Cameron would stay on as PM.

Projected Labour gains from Conservative:

Warwickshire N, Hendon, Cardiff N, Sherwood, Stockton S, Lancaster, Broxtowe, Amber Valley, Wolverhampton SW, Waveney, Carlisle, Morecambe, Weaver Vale, Lincoln, Plymouth SD, Stroud, Brighton Kemptown, Bedford, Dewsbury, Warrington S, Pudsey, Enfield N, Hove, Corby, Northampton N, Brentford, Hastings, Halesowen, Nuneaton, Ipswich, Bury N, Wirral W, Erewash, Chester, Croydon C, Keighley, Cannock, Harrow E, Ealing C, Rossendale, Peterborough, Milton Keynes S, S Ribble, Finchley.

Listen out for the bold 17 – Labour needs those seats!

p.s. Projected Con holds (among their marginal seats):

Blackpool N, Gloucester, Kingswood, Worcester, Aberconwy, Carmarthen W, Warwick, Swindon S, Stevenage, Pendle, York Outer, Loughborough, Dudley S, Norwich N.

p.p.s. Other projected gains and losses:

LibDem > Con (14)

Solihull, Mid Dorset, Wells, St Austell, Somerton, Chippenham, Berwick, Cheadle, Taunton, Torbay, Portsmouth S, Devon N, Hazel Grove, Bath.

LibDem > Lab (9)

Norwich S, Bradford E, Brent C, Burnley, Manchester Withington, Cardiff C, Redcar, Hornsey, Bristol W.

LibDem > SNP (9)

Dunbartonshire E, Argyll, Aberdeenshire W, Edinburgh W, Caithness, Gordon, Inverness, Fife NE, Ross.

Con > Ukip (3)

Clacton, Thurrock, Thanet S.

Con > SNP (1)


Lab > SNP (32)

All except Airdrie, Coatbridge, Dunbartonshire W, Glasgow NE, Glenrothes, Kirkcaldy, Motherwell, Renfrewshire E, Rutherglen.


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