Articles

2017: the marginals – some predictions

In News on June 8, 2017 by dadge

CONSTITUENCY ELECTED 2015 MAJ 2015 PREDICTION EXTRA VOTERS SINCE 2015 VOTE UK POLL
Clacton Douglas Carswell 3437 CON 69 2
Berwickshire Calum Kerr 328 CON 4000 26 0 0
Dunbartonshire E John Nicolson 2167 LD 2000 54 10
Edinburgh W Michelle Thomson 3210 LD 3000 49 5
Renfrewshire E Kirsten Oswald 3718 CON 1000 30 9 11
Caithness, Sutherland Paul Monaghan 3844 LD 500 15 25
Western Isles Angus MacNeil 4102 SNP 1000 23 7
Fife NE Stephen Gethins 4344 LD 1000 47 11
Ross, Skye Ian Blackford 5124 SNP 0 20
Edinburgh N & Leith Deidre Brock 5597 SNP 2 5 32
Paisley Mhairi Black 5684 SNP 3000 0 21
Dumfries & Galloway Richard Arkless 6514 CON 33 3
Aberdeenshire W CON 40 4
Moray CON 32 9
Stirling SNP 11 19
Edinburgh SW SNP 10 25
Ayr SNP 9 27
Arfon Hywel Williams 3668 PC 0 19
Dwyfor Meirionnydd Liz Saville Roberts 5261 PC 1 25
Carmarthen E Jonathan Edwards 5599 PC 1 4 20
Orkney & Shetland Alistair Carmichael 817 LD 1000 36 4
Southport John Pugh 1322 CON 2000 35 51
Carshalton & Wallington Tom Brake 1510 CON 2000 40 36
Sheffield Hallam Nick Clegg 2353 LD 4000 10 57
Leeds NW Greg Mulholland 2907 LD 2000 6.2 ? ? ?
Ceredigion Mark Williams 3067 LD 1500 40 6
Norfolk N Norman Lamb 4043 LD 1000 18 53
Westmorland LD 11 81
Chester  City Of Chris Matheson 93 CON 1000 46 8
Ynys Mon Albert Owen 229 PC 1000 14 9 22
Ealing Central & Acton Rupa Huq 274 LAB 2000 2.8 25 33
Wirral W Margaret Greenwood 417 CON 2000 33 6
Halifax Holly Lynch 428 CON 1000 41 5
Brentford & Isleworth Ruth Cadbury 465 LAB 1000 25 30
Ilford N Wes Streeting 589 CON 500 30 29
Cambridge Daniel Zeichner 599 LAB 500 53 47
Newcastle-under-Lyme Paul Farrelly 650 CON 3000 -2.1 30 4
Barrow & Furness John Woodcock 795 CON 1000 44 8
Wolverhampton SW Rob Marris 801 CON 3000 18 3
Enfield N Joan Ryan 1086 LAB 500 18 20
Hampstead & Kilburn Tulip Siddiq 1138 LAB 4000 2.8 22 41
Hove Peter Kyle 1236 LAB 500 22 44
Lancaster & Fleetwood Catherine Smith 1265 CON 1000 5 45 12
Dewsbury Paula Sherriff 1451 CON 3000 37 5
Wrexham Ian Lucas 1831 CON 1000 30 9 3
Derbyshire NE Natascha Engel 1883 CON 2000 48 7
Bridgend Madeleine Moon 1927 LAB 1000 2.2 23 11 2
Walsall N David Winnick 1937 CON 2000 20 4
Westminster N Karen Buck 1977 LAB 2000 1.5 12 50
Harrow W Gareth Thomas 2208 LAB 1000 30 20
Middlesbrough S Tom Blenkinsop 2268 CON 1000 42 9
Clwyd S Susan Elan Jones 2402 LAB 2000 15 7
Birmingham Northfield Richard Burden 2509 CON 1000 33 4
Stoke-on-Trent S Rob Flello 2539 CON 2000 25 8
Copeland Jamie Reed 2564 CON 2000 3.7 52 8
Blackpool S Gordon Marsden 2585 LAB 1000 28 6
Wakefield Mary Creagh 2613 CON 2000 48 15
Edinburgh S Ian Murray 2637 LAB 4000 40 1
Eltham Clive Efford 2693 LAB 500 28 23
Birmingham Edgbaston Gisela Stuart 2706 CON 1000 2.5 34 10
Tooting Sadiq Khan 2842 LAB 4000 8 50
Delyn David Hanson 2930 TIE 0 20 13 2
Gedling Vernon Coaker 2986 LAB 500 21 20
Birmingham Yardley Jess Phillips 3002 LAB 4000 2 39 14
Hartlepool Iain Wright 3024 LAB 1000 10 33
Scunthorpe Nic Dakin 3134 CON 500 17 7
Darlington Jenny Chapman 3158 CON 1000 33 21
Coventry S Jim Cunningham 3188 CON 1000 17 9
Burnley Julie Cooper 3244 LAB 5000 2 58 4
Alyn & Deeside Mark Tami 3343 LAB 500 11 19
Bishop Auckland Helen Goodman 3508 LAB 1000 32 13
Newport W Paul Flynn 3510 LAB 1000 13 20
Southampton Test Alan Whitehead 3810 LAB 1000 20 30
Bristol E Kerry McCarthy 3980 LAB 2000 20 28
Dudley N Ian Austin 4181 CON 500 18 4
Bolton NE David Crausby 4377 LAB 500 16 12
Hyndburn Graham Jones 4400 LAB 500 17 27
Bermondsey & Southwark Neil Coyle 4489 LAB 6000 46 24
Coventry NW Geoffrey Robinson 4509 CON 500 17 22
Chorley Lindsay Hoyle 4530 LAB 500 15 34
Great Grimsby Melanie Onn 4540 LAB 3000 11 12
Wirral S Alison McGovern 4599 CON 500 10 32
Workington Sue Hayman 4686 LAB 1000 16 23
Newport E Jessica Morden 4705 LAB 2000 9 15
Stoke-on-Trent N Ruth Smeeth 4836 LAB 1000 12 13
Bury S Ivan Lewis 4922 LAB 1000 22 24
Dagenham & Rainham Jon Cruddas 4980 LAB 3000 15 22
Cardiff Central Jo Stevens 4981 LAB 6000 25 5
Birmingham Erdington Jack Dromey 5129 LAB 1000 18 28
Stoke-on-Trent Central Tristram Hunt 5179 LAB 3000 8 25 1
Heywood & Middleton Liz McInnes 5299 LAB 2000 3 34
Mansfield Sir Alan Meale 5315 LAB 1000 30 28
Wolverhampton NE Emma Reynolds 5495 LAB 500 6 13
Bristol W Thangam Debbonaire 5673 LAB 2000 1 73 6 15
Luton S Gavin Shuker 5711 LAB 3000 ? ?
Worsley & Eccles S Barbara Keeley 5946 LAB 2000 10 23
Oldham E & Saddleworth Debbie Abrahams 6002 LAB 3000 12 30
Walsall S Valerie Vaz 6007 LAB 2000 4 15
Batley & Spen Jo Cox 6057 LAB 1000 1.8 14 48
Ellesmere Port & Neston Justin Madders 6275 LAB 3000 9 26
Bradford S Judith Cummins 6450 LAB 3000 4 26
Vauxhall LAB 51 5
Stalybridge 0 7
Don Valley 9 29
Doncaster C 4 37
Penistone 15 31
York 7 48
Sedgefield 0 6
Nott S 3 40
Leic W 2 26
Derby S 2 24
Ashfield 5 24
Selly Oak 5 28
Gower Byron Davies 27 CON 2000 25 7 2
Derby N Amanda Solloway 41 CON 2000 33 8
Croydon Central Gavin Barwell 165 LAB 1000 1.9 36 33
Vale Of Clwyd James Davies 237 CON 2000 17 6
Bury N David Nuttall 378 CON 3000 26 1
Morley & Outwood Andrea Jenkyns 422 CON 4000 36 9
Plymouth Sutton Oliver Colvile 523 CON 1000 3.3 ? ?
Thurrock Jackie Doyle-Price 536 CON 4000 35 3 3
Brighton Kemptown Simon Kirby 690 LAB 1000 25 14
Telford Lucy Allan 730 CON 2000 2 26 9
Eastbourne Caroline Ansell 733 CON 2000 28 8
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale David Mundell 798 CON 5000 24 0 0
Bolton W Chris Green 801 CON 3000 28 3
Weaver Vale Graham Evans 806 CON 3000 32 3
Plymouth Moor View Johnny Mercer 1026 CON 3000
Lewes Maria Caulfield 1083 CON 3000 45 15
Bedford Richard Fuller 1097 CON 2000 2.5k
Lincoln Karl McCartney 1443 CON
Thornbury & Yate Luke Hall 1495 CON 44 4
Peterborough Stewart Jackson 1925 CON 37 7
Twickenham Tania Mathias 2017 LD 500 26 59
Cardiff N Craig Williams 2137 CON 13 1 1
Southampton Itchen Royston Smith 2316 CON
Waveney Peter Aldous 2408 CON
Corby Tom Pursglove 2412 CON 5000 2.7 37 5
St Ives Derek Thomas 2469 CON 500 41 27
Warrington S David Mowat 2750 CON 5000 21 0
Carlisle John Stevenson 2774 CON 4000 28 1
Thanet S Craig Mackinlay 2812 CON 5000 43 6 3
Kingston & Surbiton James Berry 2834 CON 1500 28 25
Richmond Park CON 33 59
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