Archive for the ‘South East’ Category

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2018 Review: Brighton and Newhaven

In boundary changes,redistricting,South East,Sussex on December 10, 2017 by dadge

In the revised proposals, the knock-on effect of Brighton’s large ward sizes is causing a harmful split in Newhaven, with one third of the town (the Valley ward) included in the Lewes seat.

bce brighton4

Although Sussex can be dealt with generally without split wards, Brighton is a special case. The wards are very large such that creating a Brighton Pavilion seat relies on luck. (Excluding the two-councillor ward (Woodingdean) there are 101,106 electors between 10 wards, an average of 10,111. Now notice that 7×10,111=70,777 and 8×10,111=80,888, both of which totals are outside the permitted range.) That luck has allowed the formation of a seat (Pavilion) that scrapes over the bottom end of the permitted range, but when a seat scrapes over the line in this way it naturally pushes an excess of voters into the neighbouring seat. This is what has happened in the case of Kemptown & Seahaven.

What to do in such a case? One could, rather unreasonably, expect the responsibility for solving the problem to fall on the neighbouring seat, even though it’s not its wards that are the cause of the problem. This is what the Commission have done by looking for a solution in Newhaven. The two suggested solutions: splitting the Denton & Meeching ward, or the loss of the whole Valley ward to Lewes, are both very bad.

Instead, and much more reasonably, we can look to Brighton. On the border between the Kemptown and Pavilion seats is Hanover. Until 2010 all of Hanover was in the Pavilion seat, but some of it is now in the Kemptown seat. (This was caused by the moving of the constituency boundary to the new ward boundary.) This area (polling districts EY and EZ, the area around Windmill Street) can be returned to the Pavilion seat, providing a reasonable solution to the problem.

bce brighton9

Brighton Pavilion 71527 + EY 1238 + EZ 745 = 73510

Brighton Kemptown & Seahaven 76167 + Newhaven Valley 2554 – EY 1238 – EZ 745 = 76738

Lewes 77696 – Newhaven Valley 2554 = 75142

bce brighton10

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Articles

Berks/Oxon again

In Berkshire,boundary changes,Oxfordshire,South East on December 14, 2012 by dadge

Another Berks/Oxon plan. Just a variation on my previous cross-border theme.

oxon

Banbury 79,576

Witney 78,220

Oxford North 73,543

Oxford East 73,595

Vale of White Horse 73,887

South Oxfordshire 75,156

berks

Sonning 76,756

Newbury 80,063

Mid Berkshire 79,019

Reading 77,930

Wokingham 77,150

Bracknell 77,888

Windsor & Maidenhead 78,630

Slough 77,971

Articles

Unsplit Portsmouth!

In boundary changes,Hampshire,Portsmouth on November 2, 2011 by dadge

The City of Portsmouth has 2 constituencies: North and South.

A review of the constituencies is going on, and everyone’s been surprised to see that the Boundary Commission has decided to split Portsmouth into West and East constituencies:

What on earth is going on?

Under pressure from politicians, the Commission has decided that, rather than respect our cities and communities, it will, for its own convenience, and the convenience of the politicians, split our cities apart. This is not just happening in Portsmouth – several other cities are affected, including Birmingham, Nottingham and Southampton.

The ONLY reason this is being done to Portsmouth is that it’s the ONLY way they can find to divide the city between seats without splitting a ward. It’s like parliamentary democracy has become a computer game. To coin a phrase, there’s madness in the method…

What can we do about it?

We can tell the Commission and the politicians: “Split my ward, not my city! Let’s make democracy make sense.”

As people told the public enquiry in Portsmouth in October, all that needs to be done to let the people of Portsmouth have their constituencies and MPs back is to split one ward: Baffins. It’s not rocket science.

Act now!

Sign the petition

Email the Boundary Commission
Email the Chairman of the Commission

Email the Conservative Party
Email the Labour Party
Email the Liberal Democrats
Email your MP

Download, print and distribute the poster

Articles

Medway

In boundary changes,Kent,South East on October 28, 2011 by dadge

Thanks to the kind intervention of a commenter, I’ve amended my proposals for the Medway area of Kent, and now you’ll be hard-pressed to see the difference between them and the current constituencies.

Hopefully you’ve spotted the differences are (1) the transfer of the River ward to Gillingham, (2) the addition of Kings Hill, Leybourne, West Malling and East Malling to the Chatham constituency, and (3) the transfer of Holborough and Snodland to the Rochester constituency. So under my proposals, Cuxton, Halling, Holborough and Snodland are now together in the Rochester seat.

Contrast that with the Boundary Commission’s proposals. They’re suggesting, mostly for no good reason, that 4 wards from the centre of the urban area are swapped around between the Medway seats, moving 35,000 voters unnecessarily.

It’s interesting to see how that massive change was spun…

According to the Politicus blog, “Medway’s three existing parliamentary constituencies look set to remain, with minor changes.”

According to the Rochester People blog, “all three Medway constituencies will be slightly redesigned but otherwise intact.”

John Ward introduces his blogpost by stating that “it looks as though our three constituencies would remain as now” with “a few changes.”

Tristan Osborne showed more perspicacity, saying “It seems the wonks in the Boundary Commission have made some quite odd ward moves.”

Kent Online reported, with Twitter-style brevity, “The Medway Towns will continue to have three MPs but there are name changes and new boundaries for all.”

If you want massive change in Medway, or if you don’t, email the Commission.

Note: Sorry the original post had mistakes in it – I hope I’ve corrected them all!

Articles

Hampshire

In Hampshire,redistricting,South East on October 26, 2011 by dadge

Hampshire has a TE of 17.13 seats and an allocation of 17 @ 77,232.

The main complaints I’ve heard about the Commission’s proposals for Hampshire come from Fareham Borough, which the Commission proposes to split in four. It’s inevitable that part of Fareham will be in the Gosport seat, and it’s difficult to avoid Portchester being added to the Portsmouth seat, but we can reunite the rest of the Borough.

The resulting pattern of seats in the county is pretty good and not too different from what has existed before. The two oddities are:

1. The Test Valley seat, encompassing Chandlers Ford, the Bassett ward from Southampton, Romsey and the entire length of the eponymous valley.

2. The arrangements in Rushmoor and Hart. It’s hard to avoid splitting a community. The best I can come up with at the moment is to split Fleet and Church Crookham. I don’t suppose there is anybody alive who can remember Crookham being a separate parish – it became part of Fleet in 1932.

I’ve given Portsmouth back its North and South seats. Baffins polling districts (pdf) HA and HB (4,100 voters) are in the North seat.

My Southampton seats are also more similar to the current ones. Bevois polling districts CA and CB (5,301 voters) are in the Test seat.

Electorates:

Gosport 72,845
Fareham 76,894
Portsmouth North 79,438
Portsmouth South 78,964
Havant 80,453
Southampton Itchen 77,634
Southampton Test 77,320
Eastleigh 78,313
Winchester 74,480
New Forest East 73,277
New Forest West 73,385
Test Valley 79,006
Basingstoke 77,703
Rushmoor 78,797
Andover 78,562
Alton & Hart 77,232
Petersfield 78,649

Click to send the Commission your comments.

Articles

Kent and East Sussex

In Kent,redistricting,South East,Sussex on October 26, 2011 by dadge

Kent – theoretical entitlement 16.12 seats
East Sussex – 7.69 seats
Combined – 23.81; allocation 24 seats, average 76,030

Click to see the Commission’s plan.

The first thing to say about this area is that this is not a natural pairing, but it might survive for a Review or two because of the relative population growth of the two counties.

1. Brighton: the Commission have gone for a Brighton & Hove Inner and Brighton & Hove Outer arrangement – I prefer a Hove seat and a Brighton seat.

2. The Weald, Hailsham and Bexhill: Crowborough-Cranbrook makes quite a good cross-border seat but it throws out the pattern all around. In the Commission’s plan, Uckfield, Heathfield and Crowborough are all in different seats, and the Hailsham-Polegate area is split between seats.

Although it’s an Odd Couple, the eastern side of the High Weald can be put together with Bexhill to form a seat that respects the boundary of Rother district and allows Ashford district to be separated into two sensible sections, one based on Tenterden.

This also allows Uckfield, Heathfield and Crowborough to be in a single seat, as well as the creation of a seat based on Seaham and Hailsham.

3. Folkestone: Shepway district has an electorate of 80,060, so the constituency can be exactly the same.

4. Thanet/Canterbury: I’ve got nothing against Sandwich being in the Thanet seat, but it isn’t necessary. If you move the boundary between Margate and Westgate to the correct place, you can also create a coastal-towns constituency which will allow the Whitstable and Canterbury areas not to be split between seats.

5. Medway: Including Snodland in the Rochester seat (i.e. the border with the Chatham seat follows the river) allows a much better division of the Medway wards between seats, even without splitting any of them.

6. North West: I’ve included Swanley in the Dartford seat and New Barn in the Gravesham seat.

7. West: Sevenoaks district has an electorate close to the quota so I don’t see the point of ignoring the boundary. The question then remains of what to do with the Low Weald. The Commission tacks it on to Tonbridge, which is a valid option, but I don’t see why it can’t form a seat on its own. This does of course have the consequence that Tonbridge and Tunbridge Wells would be reunited in a single constituency for the first time since 1970…

Electorates:

  • Hove 78,212
    Brighton Central 76,013
    Lewes 76,356
    Hailsham & Newhaven 74,573
    West Weald 73,884
    Eastbourne 76,978
    Hastings & Rye 76,422
    Bexhill & East Weald 80,009
    Folkestone & Hythe 80,060
    Ashford 74,230
    Dover 77,565
    East Thanet 75,112
    North Kent Coast 74,210
    Canterbury & Faversham 74,433
    Sittingbourne & Sheppey 74,796
    Maidstone 76,365
    Gillingham 76,487
    Rochester 76,943
    Chatham & Aylesford 73,808
    Mid Kent 73,862
    Dartford 80,284
    Gravesham 75,604
    Sevenoaks 74,799
    Tonbridge 73,722

Comparison with the Commission’s proposals:

Brighton, Medway and East Kent in 1944.

Click here to give the Commission your opinions.

Articles

West Sussex

In redistricting,South East,Sussex on October 25, 2011 by dadge

This is a good one. Worthing has an electorate of 79,045, so can form a constituency by itself, so I wondered if there was a way to redistrict the county without splitting the town down the middle. It turns out that if the Bognor seat goes down as far as Selsey Bill you can make four neat seats for Bognor, Littlehampton/Arundel, Worthing and Lancing/Shoreham. Simples.

Chichester 73390 Chichester South 5184
    Chichester East 5875
    Chichester North 5064
    Chichester West 3805
    Fishbourne 1856
    Donnington 1793
    Bosham 3469
    Southbourne 5621
    Westbourne 1770
    Funtington 2163
    Boxgrove 1792
    Lavant 1758
    Harting 1671
    Stedham 1778
    Midhurst 4015
    Easebourne 1962
    Rogate 2020
    Fernhurst 3974
    Petworth 3869
    Plaistow 3802
    Wisborough Green 1999
    West Wittering 3985
    East Wittering 4165
Bognor 74570 Pagham and Rose Green 6076
    Aldwick West 4027
    Aldwick East 4165
    Pevensey 3681
    Marine 3414
    Orchard 3878
    Hotham 3621
    Felpham West 3975
    Bersted 6003
    Felpham East 3888
    Middleton-on-Sea 4174
    Selsey South 3542
    Selsey North 5153
    Sidlesham 1928
    North Mundham 1745
    Yapton 4257
    Barnham 6825
    Tangmere 1914
    Walberton 2304
Worthing 79045 Salvington 7134
    Heene 6035
    Central 6695
    Selden 6042
    Broadwater 6671
    Gaisford 6630
    Offington 6257
    Goring 6712
    Castle 6143
    Northbrook 3503
    Durrington 4394
    Tarring 6379
    Marine 6450
Arundel 72958 Beach 3771
    River 3519
    Brookfield 4386
    Wick with Toddington 4138
    Ham 3562
    Rustington West 6641
    East Preston with Kingston 5997
    Rustington East 4410
    Ferring 3975
    Angmering 5870
    Arundel 3497
    Findon 2115
    Chantry 7682
    Pulborough and Coldwatham 4991
    Chanctonbury 6593
    Bury 1811
Adur 78658 Widewater 4676
    Mash Barn 3304
    Peverel 3407
    Cokeham 3381
    Churchill 3436
    Manor 3156
    Marine 3512
    Eastbrook 3300
    Southwick Green 3514
    Southlands 2925
    St Mary’s 3253
    St Nicolas 3084
    Buckingham 3108
    Hillside 3340
    Hurstpierpoint and Downs 5669
    Bramber, Upper Beeding & Woodmancote 4277
    Henfield 4097
    Cowfold, Shermanbury & West Grinstead 4273
    Bolney 2121
    Hassocks 5775
    Steyning 5050
Mid Sussex 74923 Haywards Heath Lucastes 4123
    Haywards Heath Heath 3922
    Haywards Heath Ashenground 3937
    Haywards Heath Franklands 3473
    Lindfield 5388
    Haywards Heath Bentswood 3914
    High Weald 3888
    East Grinstead Herontye 3610
    East Grinstead Imberhorne 3330
    East Grinstead Baldwins 3811
    East Grinstead Town 3553
    East Grinstead Ashplats 4127
    Ashurst Wood 2058
    Cuckfield 3766
    Burgess Hill St Andrews 3423
    Burgess Hill Leylands 3670
    Burgess Hill Franklands 3857
    Burgess Hill Meeds 3440
    Burgess Hill Victoria 3946
    Burgess Hill Dunstall 3687
Horsham 73259 Holbrook East 4123
    Holbrook West 4369
    Roffey North 4825
    Roffey South 4804
    Rusper and Colgate 2002
    Ardingly and Balcombe 4184
    Nuthurst 2303
    Southwater 7556
    Forest 2945
    Horsham Park 5951
    Denne 4300
    Trafalgar 4717
    Broadbridge Heath 2344
    Itchingfield, Slinfold and Warnham 4275
    Rudgwick 2125
    Billingshurst and Shipley 7111
    Crawley Down and Turners Hill 5325
Crawley 75535 Langley Green 5343
    Pound Hill North 4790
    Northgate 3426
    Ifield 6313
    Gossops Green 3795
    Bewbush 5701
    Broadfield North 4005
    Broadfield South 3879
    Tilgate 4405
    Southgate 5734
    Furnace Green 4117
    West Green 3288
    Pound Hill South and Worth 6060
    Three Bridges 4787
    Maidenbower 6150
    Copthorne and Worth 3742