Archive for the ‘Wales’ Category

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South Wales version 2

In boundary changes,Wales on April 23, 2012 by dadge

My North Wales version 2 affects Powys, which then affects everywhere else:

Ceredigion                  76,785

Powys                          73,914

Pembroke                   76,039

Llanelli                        79,399

Port Talbot                 75,525

Gower                         77,942

Swansea                      79,614

Carmarthen                80,283

Rhondda                     75,910

Neath                          75,073

Bridgend                     75,410

Barry & Penarth        75,243

Pontypridd                              79,032

Cardiff W                                75,663

Cardiff E                                 79,450

Cardiff N                                77,489

Merthyr & Aberdare             77,480

Caerphilly                               73,246

Blaenau Gwent                       73,685

Newport W & Islwyn             78,309

Torfaen                                   76,639

Newport                                  76,641

Monmouth                              73,015

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Articles

North Wales version 2

In boundary changes,Wales on November 11, 2011 by dadge

I mentioned in my main Wales boundary review post that the Commission could be crafty in North Wales, and this map would be the result:

Menai 73,329
Gwynedd 72,950
Conwy 79,354
Denbigh 73,809
Flint 73,882
Alyn & Deeside 73,652
Wrexham 72,834

The key to this is the village of Rhiwlas (525 voters). If it’s separated from the rest of the Penisarwaun ward and added to the Môn/Bangor seat we can keep the Gwynedd seat to a reasonable size and split Arfon according to which communities look to Bangor and which to Caernarfon.

What’s more, because of the knock-on effects in Aberconwy and Denbighshire it means that none of Powys has to be added to a Wrexham or Denbigh seat!

Articles

Wales at the 2013 review

In boundary changes,Wales on November 10, 2011 by dadge

The Boundary Commission for Wales is late. They had problems which haven’t been disclosed, and two new commissioners were only appointed on 4 October. We won’t know if they are more competent than their predecessors, or more competent than the English commissioners, until their proposals are published in the New Year.

In the meantime everyone can have a go at second-guessing them, and I’ve used Boundary Assistant to have a go. Compare my effort with those by Penddu and Phil Davies.

1. The country has been allocated 30 seats, down from 40. This is the most significant change anywhere in the UK, and marks the end of the statutory over-representation of certain areas, apart from the four island constituencies (Shetland & Orkney, Western Isles, West Wight, East Wight).

2. Review areas:

North Wales (Anglesey, Gwynedd, Conwy, Denbigh, Flint, Wrexham) 6.78 seats > 7 @ 73,682

Mid/West Wales (Powys, Ceredigion, Pembroke, Camarthen) 5.09 seats > 5 @ 77,481

– Some electors from Mid Wales will probably need to be included in a North Wales seat or seats.

Swansea-Neath-Port-Talbot 3.86 seats > 4 @ 73,377

Cardiff, the Vale and Rhondda (Cardiff, Vale of Glamorgan, Bridgend, Rhondda Cynon Taf) 8.10 seats > 8 @ 77,045

– Depending on the size of the Swansea seats, Maesteg or Porthcawl might have to be included in a NPT seat.

South East Wales (Merthyr, Caerphilly, Blaenau, Torfaen, Newport, Monmouth) 6.16 seats > 6 @ 78,092

3. North Wales

Menai 77,876
Gwynedd 73,475
Colwyn Bay 79,823
Denbighshire 73,481
Flint 73,882
Alyn & Deeside 73,652
Wrexham 74,881

I’ve tried to avoid including the Conwy valley in the already large Gwynedd/Meirionnydd seat, but this has the unfortunate consequence of forcing Conwy itself into the Anglesey-Bangor seat, so I don’t think I’m on to a winner there.

(There’s one crafty thing the Commission could do – if you take the Conwy and Caerhun wards out of my Menai seat the electorate is 72,804, i.e. only 6 short, so the Commission could just transfer a few electors from the Gwynedd seat and hey presto! Job done.)

Further along the coast, Denbigh district has an electorate of 74,416 so, apart from the Llandrillo ward transferred to Gwynedd, I’ve made a coterminous constituency. The Wrexham area is short of voters so needs to include some from North Powys. This isn’t ideal but I think it’s a likely solution.

4. Mid/West Wales

Montgomery & Aberystwyth 75,813
Brecon, Radnor & Tywi 74,542
Carmarthen & Cardigan 74,211
Pembroke 76,039
Llanelli 75,500

I think this part of my plan will go down like a lead balloon, so look away now. 🙂 Even with some voters in North-Wales seats, Powys is too big for one seat. A likely solution is to add the south-Breconshire villages to seats in Glamorgan and Gwent, but if you don’t want to do that, you have little option than to have seats that cross the mountains and split Ceredigion. The seats are perfectly workable but possibly not too popular.

5. West Glamorgan

Gower 79,360
Swansea 78,383
Port Talbot 74,044
Neath 77,332
Bridgend 76,150

There are two seats west of the Tawe and two to the east. Dividing the East Swansea-Neath-Port Talbot-Maesteg area is difficult.

6. Gwent & East Glamorgan

Cardiff West 73,217
Cardiff North 77,080
Cardiff East 73,464
Barry 73,464
Ely-Vale 73,529
Rhondda 75,910
Cynon Valley & Pontypridd 77,928
Merthyr & Rhymney 79,414
Blaenau Gwent 77,493
Caerphilly & Islwyn 80,074
Torfaen 76,639
Newport 78,808
Monmouth 76,126

Part of Cardiff district needs to be included in a non-Cardiff seat and I assume that in the end a solution will be found that transfers Creigiau, Pentyrch and Radyr, but my Llantrisant-Cowbridge seat is too small unless I include Ely. Apart from that I’m pretty happy with my plan for the Valleys. I know there isn’t much of a link between Caerphilly and Blackwood, but they are in the same borough.

Download the spreadsheet