Articles

#boundaryreview Bristol region

In News on June 20, 2021 by dadge Tagged:

The Bristol area is one of the trickiest to sort out. In fact there are many ways of doing the boundaries in Devon, Somerset, Wiltshire, Gloucestershire and Bristol, and whatever you do often has quite wide-reaching knock-on effects. I’ve already posted a couple of ideas for this area, but here’s another:

  • South Cotswolds (Tetbury, Dursley & Thornbury) 70,439
  • Yate 72,612**
  • Bradley Stoke & Mangotsfield 76,564**
  • Bristol East & Kingswood 74,579
  • Bristol NW 76,783
  • Bristol West 75,071
  • Bristol NE 73,077
  • Bristol South 74,096
  • Bath 73,241
  • Southavon (Keynsham, Norton-Radstock & Bradford) 71,027
  • Chippenham 72,979
  • North Wiltshire 76,028

** includes part of split ward

Articles

Amorphous blob(b)ism

In News on June 9, 2021 by dadge Tagged:

Was it really 5 years ago? Robert Hayward did mention to me that he was going to mention it, but somehow I’d not seen it till just now…

The Boundary Commission guidance quite reasonably identifies that wards are an
indication of communities. But if wards are an indication of communities then
boroughs and counties are an even stronger indication of often long-standing
loyalties and communities, and I just referred to specifically Warwickshire and
Worcestershire looking in very different directions. What I found interesting on the
first day of the West Midlands hearings was the contribution from Adrian Bailey, who
was a completely independent person, and in his submission, and I have got it here
just as a reminder, Mr Bailey referred to the Boundary Commission proposal as an
‘amorphous blob-ism’, and actually I share that view. With the exception of
Staffordshire, we have a position where Shropshire is linked with Herefordshire,
Herefordshire is linked with Worcestershire, Worcestershire is linked with
Warwickshire, Warwickshire is linked with Coventry, Coventry is linked with Solihull,
Solihull is linked with Birmingham, Birmingham is linked with Sandwell and
Birmingham is linked with Walsall, and just for completeness, Sandwell is linked with
Wolverhampton, and, sorry, I forgot, Birmingham is also linked with Dudley. So we
have this amazing position, and as I say, Mr Bailey as an independent commentator,
analyst, made reference to describe the proposals of the Boundary Commission as
‘amorphous blob-ism’ and I agree with it. They are not the oddest constituencies

that the Boundary Commission has proposed anywhere in the country, I would
regard that as Colne and Clitheroe in the north west and the associated North
Lancashire seats, but for me these are the second-oddest collection of seats and I
refer specifically to Birmingham.

The proposals include 11 constituencies within the city of Birmingham,
six of which cross one borough boundary or another. And it seems really odd to be
in a position whereby so many constituencies have to cross the boundary of one
major city, the second city of the country, to create what I describe as ‘weird’, Mr
Bailey described as ‘amorphous blob-ism’ collection of constituencies. It would be
much more sensible if the wards in Birmingham were split in some form. We heard
from the leader of Solihull council last week, who was complaining last week that his
constituency went off into three different constituencies in different directions. If I
were Solihull I would actually feel rather like Poland of the 18th Century, you know, a
convenient ‘bit in the middle’ of other people’s empires which you chopped up at
convenience, and that is actually what the leader of Solihull council said.”

(14 November 2016, Source)

Articles

#boundaryreview Birmingham & Solihull

In News on June 9, 2021 by dadge Tagged:

The initial proposals for Birmingham were slightly surprising in that there is a single seat that crosses the boundary – the new Hodge Hill seat includes two Solihull wards: Castle Bromwich and Smith’s Wood. This isn’t ideal because it splits Kingshurst between two seats, so I’ve had a look at what might be possible if just the Castle Bromwich ward is included. The result really isn’t too bad – the constituencies are coherent and there’s just two split wards (Tyseley and Blythe).

  • Perry Barr 74,979
  • Erdington 75,657 – includes Nechells ward
  • Hodge Hill 69,730 – includes Castle Bromwich ward
  • Central 70,016 – includes Sparkbrook
  • Yardley 76,359 – includes Small Heath
  • Edgbaston 71,354
  • Northfield 75,689 – includes Bournville
  • Kings Norton 76,217 – includes Moseley
  • Hall Green 74,664 – includes Acocks Green
  • Solihull 76,494 – includes Monkspath
  • Meriden 76,815 – includes Elmdon ward

Articles

#boundaryreview Walsall

In News on June 8, 2021 by dadge Tagged:

For the background to the review see here.

Issue: the Commission is proposing to divvy the Aldridge-Brownhills seat up between the north and south Walsall seats. A simple alternative would be to keep A-B almost as it is, by splitting the Paddock ward along the canal. See the map below. Electorates: Walsall 74,866; Aldridge-Brownhills 73,122.

Articles

The 2023 Review – what is it?

In News on June 8, 2021 by dadge Tagged:

The main part of the UK’s democracy is the House of Commons. Every four or five years we elect our representatives to it, one for each of 650 constituencies. Because of population change those constituencies deviate from the average size over time so their boundaries need to be regularly reviewed, and that’s what’s happening at the moment. It’s called the 2023 Review because according to the timetable it will come into effect in two years’ time.

The official website of the Review is here, where you can find information, maps and data. There’s also a semi-interactive map where you can add your comments.

Articles

#boundaryreview Islington & Hackney

In News on June 8, 2021 by dadge Tagged:

This is the first in a series of posts dealing with issues in the initial proposals. For the background see this post.

Problem: two orphan wards. The Commission proposes taking the Dalston ward out of Hackney North and putting it in an Islington seat. It also proposes taking the Tufnell Park ward out of Islington North and putting it in a Camden seat. See the map below for a possible solution to this problem. Another possibility would be to put the three Hackney wards – parts of which used to be in Hornsey – into the Hornsey seat, but this would require a split ward.

Articles

2023 Review: North East London

In News on June 7, 2021 by dadge Tagged: ,

As usual, there’s a debate about where to draw the western boundary of this area. The numbers don’t work if you only include the Essex boroughs; I think it’s better to add Tower Hamlets than to add Enfield, Tottenham or Hackney.

This plan is close to being a “minimum change” proposal: the seats are based on the current ones (which are shown in green outline).

  • Romford* 72,267
  • Hornchurch 70,362
  • Dagenham & Rainham 73,843
  • Barking 72,317
  • Ilford South 72,742 – includes Chadwell Heath
  • Ilford North 74,702
  • Wanstead & Leytonstone 76,276** – includes Cranbrook
  • Walthamstow 74,976**
  • Chingford & Woodford 75,255
  • East Ham 76,358**
  • West Ham 70,841
  • Docklands 74,602**
  • Stepney 71,706
  • Bethnal Green & Bow 74,648

* unchanged

** estimate – includes part of split ward

Articles

2023 Review: Warwickshire

In News on April 29, 2021 by dadge Tagged: ,

Eleven seats. Solihull has too many voters for two seats, so one ward (or two) will need to be transferred to a neighbouring seat. I think the best solution would be to add the Meriden ward to Kenilworth; this would require a split ward in Solihull. The plan below is an alternative that doesn’t need a split ward: the Blythe ward is added to the Stratford seat.

Current seats are shown in green outline, proposed seats in blocks of colour.
  • Coventry North West 71,012
  • Coventry East 74,572
  • Coventry South 72,234
  • North Warwickshire* 70,245
  • Nuneaton 75,431 – includes Bulkington
  • Rugby 75,851 – coterminous with Rugby district
  • Solihull North 75,452
  • Solihull South 75,871 – includes Dorridge & Knowle
  • Stratford 74,993
  • Kenilworth & Southam 74,449
  • Warwick & Leamington 72,784

* unchanged

Articles

2023 Review: Staffordshire & The Black Country

In News on April 29, 2021 by dadge Tagged: ,

Theoretical entitlements:

  • Staffordshire 11.35
  • Walsall 2.69
  • Wolverhampton 2.35
  • Dudley 3.27
  • Sandwell 2.98

Staffordshire could be paired with Walsall for 14 seats, but that leaves the other boroughs with a total of approximately eight and a half seats. In order to solve this conundrum (without bringing other counties into the equation), I’m going to deal with this whole area as a unit.

It’s possible to have just one seat crossing the Staffordshire border, but I currently prefer to have two: one including Wombourne with part of Wolverhampton, and one including Burntwood in Aldridge-Brownhills.

In order to bring the South Staffs seat up to size I’ve included Cannock North ward and also a rural area near Kinver. It’d be better to simply add Norton Canes ward instead, but that would leave the Cannock seat 158 voters short.

Local authority boundaries are shown in red outline; my proposed seats are shown in blocks of colour.
  • Newcastle 70,025
  • Stoke North 69,738
  • Stoke Central 70,633 – includes Fenton
  • Stoke South 71,292 – includes Blythe Bridge
  • Moorlands 72,482 – includes Cheadle and Rocester
  • Stafford 72,984 – includes Eccleshall
  • Mid Staffs (Lichfield & Stone) 73,496
  • Burton 71,630
  • Cannock 70,232
  • Tamworth 74,742
  • South Staffs 70,994 – includes Penkridge and the North ward from Cannock
  • Aldridge-Brownhills 76,048 – includes Burntwood
  • Walsall North 75,837
  • Walsall South 69,869
  • Wolverhampton NE 75,782
  • Wolverhampton SW 72,797 – includes Wombourne & Kinver
  • Bilston & Coseley 73,044
  • Dudley 69,981**
  • Kingswinford & Stourbridge West 70,874
  • Halesowen & Stourbridge East 69,848**
  • West Bromwich West 74,260
  • West Bromwich East 72,499 – includes Wednesbury
  • Warley 71,780

** estimate – includes part of split ward

Articles

2023 Review: Wales

In News on April 28, 2021 by dadge Tagged: ,

Wales is entitled to 32 seats, a reduction of 8. The new law says that Anglesey (Ynys Mon) is entitled to one seat, so that leaves 31 for the rest of the country. I’ve tried to respect council boundaries where possible, and I’m reasonably happy with the pattern of seats I’ve come up with, although the boundaries in the area between the Valleys and Cardiff are rather arbitrary.

  • Caernarfonshire 70,852
  • Conwy & Meirionnydd 72,712
  • Clwydian Coast 75,557
  • Denbigh & Flint 74,735
  • Alyn & Deeside 75,754
  • Wrexham 72,977
  • Montgomery & Ruabon 73,841
Council areas are shown in red outline; proposed constituencies are shown in blocks of colour.
  • Ceredigion 75,584
  • Pembrokeshire 75,299
  • Carmarthen 70,211
  • Llanelli 72,367
  • Brecon & Radnor 72,113
  • Monmouth 72,681
  • Swansea 74,486
  • Gower 70,640
  • Neath & Loughor 73,638
  • Aberavon 76,450
  • Bridgend 73,086
  • Cynon Valley 70,010
  • Vale of Glamorgan 73,850
  • Rhondda & Ogmore 71,962
  • Cardiff South 70,041
  • Cardiff North 76,961
  • Cardiff East 74,818
  • Barry 76,531
  • Merthyr & Rhymney 72,188
  • Newport West 73,407
  • Newport East 74,689
  • Blaenau Gwent 71,795
  • Torfaen 70,591
  • Caerphilly 70,436